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Europe's largest bank is the latest global institution to revise its oil price assumptions as concerns grow over how Iranian crude will be replaced by the market once USA sanctions come fully back into force in November.

USA light crude CLc1 settled down $1.78, or 2.5 percent, at $68.59 a barrel.

Futures in NY dropped as much as 0.8 per cent after two days of gains.

U.S. WTI futures were down 0.65 percent as of 1:05 p.m. HK/SIN to trade at $69.91 per barrel. OPEC said it expects non-OPEC production to expand by 2.15 million barrels a day next year, 20,000 more than forecast last month.

"A drawdown in crude oil inventories isn't very comforting when you're going to lose a lot of Iranian crude in a couple of weeks", said Phil Flynn, an analyst at Price Futures Group.

Global demand will hit a high of 100.3 million bpd in the final quarter of this year, before moderating to 99.3 mln bpd in the first quarter of next year, the agency said.

Iranian production has already fallen to the lowest since July 2016, at 3.63 million barrels a day, as buyers retreat ahead of USA sanctions that come into force on November 4.

He also warned of the impact of USA sanctions against Iran: "This is a huge uncertainty on the market - how countries, which buy nearly 2 million barrels per day of Iranian oil, will act".

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"While Iranian exports have fallen by almost 500,000 barrels per day since May, shipments from Iraq and Saudi Arabia have risen by 200,000 barrels per day and 60,000 barrels per day respectively", the IEA added.

Supply data from the Energy Information Administration will be released later today.

Oil traded below $70 a barrel as investors assessed the outlook for an oil supply shortage with Iran sanctions set to kick in against whether Opec can fill in the gap by raising output.

Iranian crude exports have fallen significantly before US sanctions even take effect, the IEA said in a monthly report.

"Things are tightening up", the agency that advises Western governments on energy policy said in its monthly report. The introduction of tighter standards for shipping fuel from IMO 2020 is among the bank's major concerns to cause market disruption as is the loss of Iran's crude.

"World demand will average 98.82 million bpd in 2018, a demand growth of 1.62 million bpd", said S&P. The decline was prompted by concerns about demand that relate directly to the trade war between the United States and China.

Oil traders were also watching the progress of category 4 Hurricane Florence, which is expected to make landfall on the U.S. East Coast by Friday.


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